• Field to Fork Certified Seed Traceability

    Field to Fork Certified Seed Traceability

  • Cleaned and Treated Certified Seed

    Cleaned and Treated Certified Seed

  • Foreign and Domestic Supply

    Foreign and Domestic Supply

  • Seed Producer Contracts

    Seed Producer Contracts

Do you have adequate storage for this coming harvest?  We feel there are many reasons that could potentially lead to a bin shortage.  Why not order in advance when bin prices are the cheapest?  We sold out early last season and although we have increased our booking order, we are expecting Manitoba to have a big year.

 

Here at Knight Seeds we feel that there will be substantially more demand for grain storage for fall of 2019.  A few of the reasons are:

- More acres of cereals as opposed to lower yielding higher value crops (canola, beans)

- Farmers will carry over more grain into next crop year than an average year

      - More lentils + peas stored into new crop year in anticipation of India coming back to the market.

      - Farmers looking at possibility of selling their canola @ a lower price than they had done since 2014. Combine that with higher than average yields, I think for relatively debt free farmers, this means more carryover into next crop year.  

      - Farmers in Manitoba experienced probably their highest yield of red spring wheat in 2018.  Yields in the 80+ range were not uncommon.  I feel this with other factors will contribute to more red spring wheat acres in 2019.  Over the past 18 months we have had a couple of significant spikes on prices ($9 on June 2017)($7.50+ on April 2018)  Combine this with weather issues in various parts of the world; Australia, India, China, and Europe.

- Delayed harvest will also become less appealing after 2018; soybeans and straight cut canola do pose additional management issues.  Many farmers are tired of dragged out harvests in our area.

- Most farmers are pretty good at growing wheat.  Even the farmers that don't want to grow wheat are admitting the numbers are looking good. May encourage farmers to switch to cereals that have been growing canola on canola.  Could see this as an opportunity to break the cycle, plus we have all heard about club root. . . 

- Off the combine delivery contracts don't mean much anymore.  You may have heard, "we didn't get the cars we were promised. . ."  There is some question as to whether our rail system will be able to move the 2018 crop anyway. We doubt there will be much available elevator space this fall.  If your wheat yields drop 10% from last year, but your acres of cereals are up, you still may need more storage.

- Oat acres will likely increase this year.  Price is highest since 2014, and $4 delivered to some processors exists.  Oat varieties are pretty good now with yields of 125 being more common.

- Oats in Europe were poor due to dry hot weather, combined with less acres in the U.S.  This sets us up for a pretty good year in 2019 to grow oats again.  (less fert, less chem, less disease, more bushels, more storage)  In prior years the U.S would import oats from Europe if ours got too expensive.  It's not going to happen this year.

- Malt and feed barley acres will likely increase as well.  Potential for some good feed barley prices at elevators for export.  $4.50 delivered was even available right out of the chute this harvest in some locations.

- Growing malt without a contract may be risky.  Likely any additional demand will be offered to contract holders.

- It appears that soybean acres may suffer a bit in 2019.  Yields were off due to a lack of moisture.  This also points to more cereals in 2019.

- One of the biggest risks to our supply side of storage is the U.S.

          - Large carryout of soybeans, U.S farmers presently are looking at the lowest prices of this decade.  Many will hold out for higher prices.  Also, China is still not buying.

          - 31-33% currency advantage

          - U.S buy lots of bins from Canada each year now.  Concern is this may accelerate as they know now that they are going to carry over beans.

          - Appears soybean acreage reduction will be between 5-10%, with those acres likely going into higher yielding crops. (more storage)